Most prime ministers would resign in the face of any of the scandals that have engulfed Boris Johnson’s government. Johnson, who was never one for tradition or rules, persevered through nearly every crisis, but the Chris Pincher scandal was the final straw. Over 50 members of Johnson’s government resigned in a day and a half, led by Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor Rishi Sunak. Johnson has resigned as party leader, but has pledged to remain Prime Minister until a new leader is chosen.
Johnson was not a typical leader, and his successor will face many challenges. Before the next general election, they will need to strengthen the Conservative Party (which could come sooner rather than later). They will need to distance themselves from the more contentious aspects of Johnson’s legacy while keeping the ship afloat and appealing to voters. Here are the most likely candidates for this seemingly impossible task:
Ben Wallace
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is a serious contender, despite not being as well-known as some of the other candidates. He was instrumental in the UK’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and he was emphatic in the run-up to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan that action was required to evacuate UK citizens and others in danger. He did not resign from Johnson’s cabinet, which may count against him, but he appears to be a viable candidate. Early polling indicates Wallace is the candidate to beat, but the campaign will put his popularity to the test.
Penny Mordaunt
State Secretary for Trade Policy Penny Mordaunt is not a household name, but she is well-liked within the Conservative Party. Mordaunt was a short-lived but well-regarded defence minister who had recently served as a Royal Navy reservist. She previously held the position of Secretary of State for International Development (before the department was merged with the Foreign Office). Mordaunt, like Wallace, has backed Johnson in recent days, but her popularity within the party may allow her to overcome that issue, especially if she can play up her pro-Brexit credentials.
Rishi Sunak
In the early stages of the pandemic, the former chancellor was regarded as the leader in waiting. His early successes with the furlough scheme raised his status and profile, but his star quickly faded. Sunak appeared out of touch with voters due to questions about his wife’s tax status and wealth. He and Johnson were also fined by police for lockdown parties in Downing Street. While he remains a strong candidate, he may have wished that his chance to run for president had come sooner.
Sajid Javid
Javid has the distinction of having served in two Johnson cabinets. His desire to appoint his own staff drove his first resignation as chancellor, just before the pandemic. Following Matt Hancock’s resignation, he was invited back into cabinet. While many in the party regard Javid as a very capable MP with a working-class background that would work in his favour, some are concerned that re-joining Johnson’s cabinet showed a lack of judgement.
Nadhim Zahawi
Zahawi rose to prominence after spearheading the vaccine rollout. His tenure as education secretary was praised, but his move to the Treasury less than two days before telling Johnson to resign has raised questions about his motives. Zahawi is likely to suffer as a result of the perception that he let personal ambition override his moral compass. He will have to explain this to the party and the country.
Liz Truss
The foreign secretary, who is currently abroad on official business, will undoubtedly be relieved not to have been caught up in the chaos of this week. Is she, however, too absent? While many regard her as a “safe pair of hands,” she is not a dynamic candidate for leader, and her ability to become an electoral asset to the party is questionable. Truss may have a chance if the Conservatives want a safe choice rather than another “exciting” leader to replace Johnson.
Dominic Raab
Another potential leader in the making is the deputy prime minister. He has held several cabinet positions, including Brexit secretary, foreign secretary, and now justice minister. While he holds a high-ranking position, he has made a number of mistakes. As Brexit minister, he completed the negotiations begun by his predecessor, David Davis, before resigning because he couldn’t accept the deal he helped to finalise. As foreign secretary, he was chastised for his slow response to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. That, combined with his earlier comments before joining the cabinet labelling British workers the “worst idlers in the world,” makes him a long shot for Downing Street.
The rest of the pack
On the backbenches, at least three potential candidates are expected: former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt, prominent Brexiteer Steve Baker, and well-known backbencher Tom Tugendhat. Any backbencher who wants to catapult themselves into Downing Street should expect a bumpy ride. Typically, a track record of success is required. This is more difficult for a backbencher because they have never served in cabinet or have left cabinet (usually after being asked to). These people have a long road ahead of them.
Others may wish to assess their chances with the party. Cabinet secretaries Priti Patel and even Jacob Rees-Mogg may test the water, but they will almost certainly find it cold.
The battle ahead will inevitably have twists and turns, and the outcome is nearly impossible to predict. Many Conservative Party members, and perhaps the entire country, will be hoping for less exciting times than they have recently experienced.